Spatial cluster analysis of prevalence
http://www.neurology.org/cgi/content/abstract/58/2/277
Neurology 2002;58:277-282
M. Pugliatti, MD, G. Solinas, MS,
S. Sotgiu, MD, P. Castiglia, MD and G. Rosati, MD
From the Istituto di Clinica Neurologica
(Drs. Pugliatti, Sotgiu, and Rosati) and Istituto di Igiene e Medicina
Preventiva (Drs. Solinas and Castiglia) University of Sassari, Italy.
Background:
A heterogeneous geographic distribution
of MS has been reported among different ethnic groups, and also within
small communities. Epidemiologic studies conducted over the past two decades
using repeated assessments clearly show that Sardinia is at high risk for
MS, with a prevalence of 150 per 100,000 in 1997.
Objective:
To present spatial analysis of the
disease prevalence to disclose possible "hot" or "cold" spots of disease,
further allowing correlations with risk factors.
Methods:
A spatial analysis of the whole province
of Sassari, in northern Sardinia, at a microgeographic level (i.e., in
the 89 administrative communes and 6 linguistic areas) was conducted. Because
of the small number of cases per commune and to overcome random variability,
a hierarchical Bayesian approach was adopted. The distribution of prevalent
cases by commune of residence on December 31, 1997 and from age 5 to 15
years was analyzed.
Results:
A clustering pattern was found in
the southwestern communes of the province based on geographic distribution
by both prevalence and residence at age 5 to 15 years. A west-to-east gradient
also was observed.
Conclusions:
This study highlights a hot spot
of MS in the southwestern part of Sassari province, bordering with the
commune of Macomer, where MS was once hypothesized as having occurred as
an epidemic. Interestingly, these areas of MS clustering comprise the Common
Logudorese linguistic domain. The Catalan area, linguistically and genetically
distant from the remaining Sardinian domains, does not show such high estimates.
Because MS is not a single-source infectious disease, this study may help
test the hypothesis that a widely and evenly spread environmental (infectious?)
agent may produce disease in subgroups of genetically more susceptible
individuals in areas at higher inbreeding rates, wherein a disease mode
of inheritance could be better investigated.
© 2002 American Academy of Neurology